Showing posts with label NEJM. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NEJM. Show all posts

Genetic Testing: Another Reason Why It's Not Likely To Lower Costs


Today’s Managing Health Care Costs Number is $299


A number of genetic testing companies suggest that doing genetic testing on individuals or an employee workforce could lower overall health care costs.  The cost of these tests ranges from $299 to $999.

Here’s how this works in theory.   Some people will be found to have genetic predisposition to react badly to some medications, or to need higher or lower doses of these medications.  Doing genetic tests would help individual employees get the best drug for their personal genetic traits in categories including antidepressants and blood thinners.   Further, genetic test could motivate behavior change when some people discover they are at higher genetic risk for certain diseases, including diabetes or heart disease.

The savings claims seem highly unlikely.

The General Accountability Office sent DNA samples from its own employees to multiple genetic testing companies, using both real and fictitious demographic and medical information. The GAO found that there were wild inconsistencies among the companies, and the genetic counseling advice offered was deeply flawed or worse. 

I’m especially interested in the “scared skinny” argument.  This argument goes that when shown evidence that she is at higher risk of diabetes, a test subject will go out and increase exercise and lose weight.    I’m skeptical, of course, since many people already see their parents suffer the complications of diabetes –and that would seem to me to have far more impact than a genetic test report!

The New England Journal of Medicine  published an article on its website this week reporting on 3600 people who personally paid for the Navigenics genetic testing package.   The article focuses on over 2000 people who had the genetic test and then completed 3 month followup surveys. The researchers looked at lifestyle behavior change subsequent to getting the results of the genetic tests, and compared those at high vs. low risk for various conditions.

The good news is that few people had test related distress or anxiety (9.3%) or clinically significant test related anxiety (2.8%) when they got their results.

The bad news (and you have to read the supplementary appendix to see the actual results) is that people found to be at increased genetic risk for obesity increased their intake of fatty foods after receiving the test results.  The only other significant findings related to risk conditions were those at higher risk of breast cancer had decreased exercise and increased their fat intake.  Those found to be at risk for  aneurisms, heart attacks, strokes, and diabetes did not make any significant changes in their lifestyles based on the result of these tests.

Genetic testing is likely to play an important future role in ascertaining the best medical care for each of us as individuals.  This study undermines one of the arguments to do widespread genetic testing right now.   There is no reason to encourage an unselected low risk population to get genetic testing at this point.

By the way, here's a link to a post from two years ago pointing out that genetic testing was promised to save money for those on blood thinners, but rigorous studies showed increased cost.

RAND Cost Saving Estimates, August (MA) and November (US)


(Click on graphic to enlarge)
The Mass Division of Health Care Policy and Finance sponsored an impressive review by RAND researchers of potential cost-saving opportunities in Massachusetts, which was published in August. I blogged about this late this summer, and have always felt that this extensive analysis didn't get nearly enough attention.

The NEJM last week published an article by same RAND researchers extending this analysis to the rest of the country.

This remains an important study - and I'm glad to see an extrapolation getting new press.

I'm also intrigued by the differences in findings.

Hospital rate setting: Maximum savings in MA 4%; US 2%
Healthcare IT: Maximum savings in MA 1.8%; US 1.5%; Maximum increase in costs in MA 0.6%; in US 0.8%
Expand scope of practice for NPs and PAs: MA range savings 0.6%-1.3%; US 0.3%-0.5%
Medical home: MA maximum savings 0.9%; US 1.2%
Disease management:  MA maximum savings 0.1%; US maximum savings 1.3%

It makes sense that rate setting might be more effective in Massachusetts to the extent that prices are higher. In fairness, this might not be a 1:1 comparison since the NEJM lumps a few different options together.  Scope of practice savings might be different based on supply of physician and non-physician providers.  I'm surprised to see higher projections of savings for medical home, since our specialist:primary care ratio is high in Massachusetts.  I also can't explain why disease management would have so much higher projected maximum savings in the US overall compared to Massachusetts.

This analytic work is especially important as we consider what cost-control mechanisms should be included in health care reform.

 
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